The trouble with elections in Africa

Around half a century ago, the European colonial powers started to cede control over their African colonies opening the door for independence. This move towards black majority rule was applauded by the international community. Unfortunately, though, this did not quite work out as planned for all that has happened in most African countries is that white minority rule has been replaced by black minority rule.

It is a fact that in these 50 years since independence swept over the continent, only on NINE occasions have ruling parties failed to get re-elected in presidential elections in the 47 countries which comprise the land mass of Africa. Elections in Africa are usually nothing short of a farce as governing parties are singularly adept at holding on to power through a combination of harassment of the opposition, vote buying and ballot rigging. As Tanzanian Foreign Minister Benjamin Memba stated recently 'in Africa, when it comes to elections, irregularities and erros are a given.' And the African Union, whose constitution espouses democracy and free elections, refuses to confront this blatant disregard of human rights as it is controlled by all the heads of African governments. At the same time, although Western governments preach to their African counterparts about the need for free and fair elections and are even happy to finance them, they rarely take governments to task for the way they perpetuate themselves power. As a result, in Africa, more changes of government occur through military coups -e.g. Madagascar, Guinea in 2009 and Niger in 2010 - than through the ballot box.

It is this unchallenged rule and the lack of censure from within or without which is the principal factor as to why, today, Africa is the home of many of the world's longest serving leaders, some of whom have been in power for more than 30 years - Muammar Gaddafi in Libya since 1969, Obiang Nguema in Equatorial Guinea and Jose dos Santos in Angola since 1979, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe since 1980 and Paul Biya in Cameroon since 1982.

Now this longevity of rule would not matter so much if these governments were actually seeking to improve the lives of their people by laying the foundations for economic growth, good governance, social welfare and human rights. However, the majority of regimes in the world's poorest continent, by far, are more concerned with looking after the interests of their families and friends, amassing personal fortunes and selling off the country's natural resources to the highest bidder. No wonder then that the majority of Africans today are still subsistence farmers scratching a living from the soil as they have done since biblical times.

In some countries, though, a few green shoots have started to appear when ruling parties have failed to hold on to power. But this has only happened in smaller countries like Ghana, Sierra Leone and Benin. And with freely elected governments in only 3 out of 47 nations after a period of half a century, the holding of these elections only seeks to give legitimacy to one party rule and is surely a waste of everyone's time, effort and money. The West, then, should accept that real democracy cannot flourish unless a country has a strong middle class and, instead, seek to encourage better governance in developing countries through targeting overseas aid at the more progressive regimes.

Nevertheless, although there will be little chance of change, for record purposes, just1WORLD will produce a yearly timetable of forthcoming presidential elections in the countries of Africa. As each country's election draws closer we shall show what happened in the previous presidential election and present the main opposition candidates/ parties in the contest about to be fought. After the election we shall give the result and report the findings of the international election observers which will undoubtedly be along the lines of that, although there were a few hiccups, the election result itself cannot be contested.

NUMBER OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SINCE A RULING PARTY LAST SUFFERED DEFEAT IN AFRICA - 20 and counting.

NEXT ELECTION

Sep 19 - Guinea - RUN OFF - should be one of the richest countries in the world with the largest bauxite mine and huge gold and diamond deposits. Alas it is one of the poorest. After the failed assassination attempt, in December, 2009, on coup victor Capt Moussa Dadis Camara, his deputy Sekouba Konate took over. Konate immediately initiated talks with the opposition and chose Jean-Marie Dore, a fierce critic of military rule, as interim prime minister up to the presidential election on 27 June, 2010. This election, in which the military was not involved, offered a chance for change for the first time ever at the ballot box with 24 candidates competing for the presidency. The candidate drawing the biggest crowds was Alpha Conde, leader of the Rally of the People of Guinea (RPG), who is widely believed to have won the 1993 presidential election and who has been imprisoned and exiled several times in the intervening years. Other leading candidates were Cellou Diallo, prime minister from 2004-6, leader of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) and Sidya Toure, also a former prime minister from 1996-9, leader of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR). There were massive queues at polling stations and turnout came in at 77%. Not surprisingly it took some time to collate all the votes and amongst accusations of corrupt accounting Cellou Diallo came out top with 43.7% of the vote with Alpha Conde next on 18.2%. Sidya Toure came third with 13.6%. These figures have since been confirmed by the Supreme Court. As no candidate secured 50% of the vote a run-off between the 2 leading contenders will take place on 19 September. This is too long after the election and has left the government of Guinea in limbo for three months.

FUTURE ELECTIONS 2010

Even by African standards, in those countries where elections are scheduled to take place, their occurrence, this year, is more uncertain than usual.

October 31 - Cote d'Ivoire - postponed from 2005, November, 2009 and March 2010 and don't even bank on it happening this time round. Technically President Laurent Gbagbo's mandate ran out in 2005 - 5 years ago. However, the problem with holding a Presidential election at present is that the president only controls the South whilst the North is controlled by the Forces Nouvelles (FN). An UN arms embargo is currently in operation. A disputed voters' roll has now been published but another postponement suits both the leaders in the South and North as it perpetuates them in power. On February 13, 2010 Laurent Gbagbo dissolved the government and Electoral Commission and called on Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, leader of the FN, to form a new government. The opposition immediately demanded the reinstatement of the Electoral Commission before they would co-operate and several people were killed during clashes with the security forces. President Blaise Compaore of Burkina Faso arrived in the country as mediator and a provisional government, acceptable to all sides, has now been formed. Work is now supposedly continuing in drawing up the official electoral list. The African Union is pressing for a presidential election sooner rather than later but the continuation of the status quo suits both sides.

November 7 - Comoros - the most southerly member of the Arab League. The Comoros archipelago comprises four main islands - Grand Comore, Moheli, Anjouan and Mayotte. However, in a referendum on independence in 1975, Mayotte voted to remain a departement of France. Since then the Comoros have had a troubled existence and the three remaining islands now rotate the presidency. But a political crisis loomed as the current leader, Ahmed Sambi from Anjouan, extended his presidential term by one year from May 2010 contrary to the tripartite agreement signed in 2001. The African Union has now stepped in and brokered a deal which allows Sambi to stay in office until November 7 when a union president from Moheli will take over. If a second round of voting is needed it will be held on December 26.

November - Tanzania - in the last election in 2005, Jakaya Kikwete became the candidate of the Revolutionary Party of Tanzania (CCM) taking over from Benjamin Mkapa who had been president for 10 years. He duly won the presidential election with 80% of the votes cast with his principal rival, Prof Ibrahim Lipumba of the Civic United Front (CUF) coming a distant second with just 12% of the vote. UNDP and Transparency International both highlighted serious incidents of graft in the campaign. This time round both the CCM and the CUF are represented by the same candidates.

November? - Madagascar - since former disc jockey Andry Rajoelina, with army support, pushed former president Marc Ravalomanana from power in February, 2009, the country has been suspended from the African Union (AU) and aid from the West has been withheld. Under pressure from these 2 groups, Rajoelina was instructed to come up with a power sharing compromise but has failed to do so. As a result sanctions imposed by the AU and the withholding of aid have worsened the country's problems. Rajoelina has now accepted the need for constitutional reform, which will be voted upon in August, followed by an election for a new president in November in which Rajoelina has promised not to stand.

December 26 - Niger - the military junta led by Maj Salou Djibo has announced that a referendum on a new constitution will be held in October ahead of presidential elections in December or at least by March, 2011. If there is no clear winner a second round will be held in the following month. Niger has been suspended by the African Union since a military coup in February, 2010. According to Djibo no one from the military will be allowed to stand.

January 23, 2011 Central African Republic - this election has been postponed several times in 2010 due to 'insecurity caused by rebels'. This has meant that President Francois Bozize has held on to power beyond his mandate which ended in June, 2010. The government has stated that it requires CFA francs 7 bn (£8,750,000) to fund the election and is pushing the EU for the money. Now that an election date has been fixed, the EU is apparently prepared to offer CFA francs 6.2 bn (£7,750,000) towards the cost.

Angola - presidential elections have been abandoned in 2009 and the next election will be fought in 2012 to appoint a head of state from the party with the largest number of seats in parliament. Under this new constitution a president can only serve 2 x 5 year terms but President Jose dos Santos, leader of the MPLA and in power since 1979, would start from scratch in 2012 and could remain in office until 2022. Angola is a major oil producer but is also one of the world's poorest countries and scores lowly for quality of governance (see Table of Truth in RECOMMENDATIONS)

PREVIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2010

August 9 - Rwanda - according to the US based Human Rights Watch, president Paul Kagame's government has already started attacking and intimidating its opponents. Victoire Ingabire, the leader of the United Democratic Front, was arrested in January, 2010 on her return to the country and is currently out on bail, her passport seized and she must remain in the capital, Kigali. The deputy leader of the Democratic Green Party, Andre Rwiserek, was mysteriously found dead on 12 July. Several military officers have also been arrested and a former general found dead in South Africa whilst 2 independent newspapers have been shut down for 6 months. Paul Kagame has been president since March 2000 after leading his party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), to power in 1994 and ending the Rwandan genocide. The slaughter of more than 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus was by far the bloodiest chapter in a long power struggle between the minority Tutsis and majority Hutus. In the 2003 election Kagame won 95% of the vote in the first national election since 1994. This time round, thanks to the clampdown on his civil and military opponents, Kagame will only have to beat three candidates - all of whom are his political allies. To some extent this is understandable for the forces that led to the genocide are still in tact and waiting for the opportunity to exploit any instability. However, fear, murder and intimidation should never be used to clear the way for an election victory. And Kagame does not really need to do this for living standards have improved enormously for most Rwandans in the last decade as the president's drive and vision has worked brilliantly to transform a shattered nation into a rapidly expanding economy. When the result was announced Kagame duly won with 93% of the vote. After the announcement he promised to abide by the country's constitution which limits presidents to two 7 year terms so he will step down in 2017.

June 28 - Burundi - despite the growing concern about worsening security and limits to political freedom this election will go ahead. After many years of civil conflict Pierre Nkurunziza of the CNDD-FDD won the election in 2005 but moving the economy forward and improving human rights has been a challenge for his government in the last 5 years. Allegations of massive fraud during local elections in May have resulted in all opposition parties opting out of this election leaving the president as the only candidate. 40 grenade attacks were reported leading up to this vote. The election did not much impress Burundian voters as polling stations were generally poorly visited and the turnout was low.

May 23 - Ethiopia - difficult to see how a free and fair election can be held here when the main opposition leader, Birtukan Mideksa, has been sent to jail, for no apparent reason other than she was giving prime minister Meles Zenawi a hard time. Opposition parties are denied right of assembly and harassed and there is no free press. Meles's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democracy Front (EPRDF) party has virtually made Ethiopia into a totalitarian state. The party controls regional and district councils and so can monitor and intimidate opposition party supporters. It then distributes aid money from the US and UK in the shape of food and places in schools to its own supporters. EPRDF tolerates no dissent and has even jammed the Amharic language radio service run by Voice of America. The US and UK refuse to cut aid as both need the intelligence on terror that comes from Somalia through Addis Ababa. In 2005, after a long delay in confirming the results, and massive street demonstrations where 200 protesters lost their lives, Meles's party secured 296 seats out of 547, enough to guarantee his being re-elected Prime Minister. For this election, the European Union has agreed to send 200 election monitors at a cost of US$10,000,000. However, the Carter Centre has declined. Although the official result will not be announced until 21 June, it is already clear that Meles has won an overwhelming victory and that the opposition has been annihilated. Unofficial figures suggest that the EPRDF will hold an astonishing 545 out of the 547 seats in parliament: the combined opposition just two. E U election monitors severely criticised the poll stating that it fell far short of international standards but election observers from the African Union indicated that the election was free and fair and generally reflected the will of the Ethiopian people. The opposition parties have called for a rerun and have been granted leave to challenge the result by the supreme court.

May - Central African Republic - in power since 1993, Francois Bozize should have no problem securing another 5 year term in one of the worst governed countries on the continent. He will represent the Kwa na Kwa labour party formed by himself in 2009. Many opposition parties will boycott this election. In the last election in 2003, Bozize defeated former prime minister Martin Ziguele in a run-off where he secured 65% of the votes. CAR is one of the world's poorest and most neglected countries and currently is ranked 179/182 in the UNDP Human Development Report. Army mutinies, attempted rebellions, gangs that kidnap for ransom guarantee to make life challenging for civilians, especially in the north, near the border with Sudan. Nevertheless, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, on a one-day visit to the nation, expressed her hope that 'this election presents a tremendous opportunity for the Central African Republic, to show the world that it can hold successful, free and fair elections, and to take a great leap forward towards securing a peaceful democratic future.' Faint hope. This much postponed election will apparently not now happen for Bozize has accepted a controversial constitutional amendment making him 'president for life'.

May 5 - Mauritius - there was an amazing 81% turnout here in the election in 2005 when Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam of the Social Alliance party secured 38 of the 62 contested seats. This time he will again be opposed by former PM Paul Berenger of the Mauritian Militant Movement. Formerly a British colony, Mauritius became a republic in 1992 and since then the country has had a reputation for stability and racial harmony among its mixed population of Asians, Europeans and Africans. And it is one of the few countries in Africa where power has changed hands. After the votes were counted Paul Berenger conceded defeat after the Social Alliance party of Navin Rangoolam amassed 41 of the 62 contested parliamentary seats on a turnout of 78%.

April 11-15 - Sudan - in this first nationwide election since 1986 President Omar al-Bashir, who came to power through a coup in 1989, will seek to extend his power as the candidate of the National Congress Party. In this election, after a period of 24 years, the people of Sudan will be asked to vote for a national president, a national assembly, state governors, state assemblies, a president for the semi-autonomous South and a Southern Assembly. This means that there will be a chance to vote 8 times in the North and 12 times in the South. Then, after this national election, there follows a referendum on independence in Southern Sudan, where 25% of the population reside, scheduled for 9 January, 2011. In order to qualify for independence, 60% of the registered voters in the South would need to go to the polls and 51% would need to approve independence before it could be granted. It may be the first election for 24 years but most of the opposition parties have refused to take part in the election for national president citing 'the continuing conflict in Darfur and electoral irregularities'. However, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, which rules the semi-autonomous South, will contest the parliamentary and municipal elections. This flawed presidential election hardly bodes well for the future of Sudan and will increase tension ahead of next January's poll on independence for the South. Bashir, then, who is currently wanted by the International Criminal Court to answer charges of genocide in Darfur, is set to continue his remorseless rule of terror. A two day extension to the election meant that voting continued for four days. When the final result was announced, in the national election for president, Bashir had captured 68% with Yassir Arman, representing the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) from the South gaining 22% even though he had withdrawn from the contest. In the race for the Southern presidency Salva Kiir, leader of the SPLM, secured 93% of the vote against only one rival. Both the European Union and the Carter Center said that the poll did not meet international standards.

March 4 (postponed from 28 February) - Togo - President Faure Gnassingbe will contest this election as candidate of the ruling Togolese People's Rally. He became president in 2005, collecting 60% of the vote, after the death of his father Gnassingbe Eyadema who had ruled Togo in an unbroken reign from 1967. That election left 500 dead and thousands injured as the opposition claimed massive poll rigging. The constitution only requires the the winning candidate to get a simple majority of the votes cast in one single round of voting. Candidates must be at least 35 years old and only have Togolese nationality. Controversially they must also pay a deposit of US$44,000 (£29,300). This time Faure Gnassingbe faces a strong challenge from Jean-Pierre Fabre of l'Union des Forces du Changement. Both men mounted strong rallies at the weekend ahead of the vote. However, even with an independent electoral commission set up by UNDP, with another 6 candidates in the race, and with the weight of the state behind him, it is difficult to see anything other than a Faure victory here. And sure enough Faure Gnassingbe duly coasted to victory gaining 1.24 million votes (60%) ahead of Jean-Pierre Fabre with 692,000 (33%). 2.1 million votes were cast and the turnout was 65%. Not surprisingly the opposition parties dispute the result.

just1world has been following presidential elections in Africa since 2004.

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